With new data from the U.S. Census Bureau showing retail sales increases over the past two months, the National Retail Federation is projecting a 2.5-3.5% lift in holiday sales during November and December, compared to a year ago.
“Retail sales grew solidly over the past two months, demonstrating households’ capacity to spend and the strength of the economy,” NRF says. Holiday shopping may have been part of that spending, as a Foundation survey shows that 45% of holiday shoppers said they planned to start before November.The Census Bureau’s report shows October’s overall retail sales up 0.4% seasonally adjusted from September and up 2.8% unadjusted from October 2023, compared to 0.8% month-over-month and 2% year-over-year lifts in September.
For October, core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data, but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants — saw a 5.4% unadjusted year-over-year gain, while unchanged seasonally adjusted month-over-month. Year to date, core sales were up 3.5% vs. January-October 2023.
“October’s pickup in retail sales shows a healthy pace of spending as many consumers got an early start on holiday shopping,” National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz says. “October sales were a good early step forward into the holiday shopping season, which is now fully underway. Falling energy prices have likely provided extra dollars for household spending on retail merchandise.”
Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported that core retail sales were up 0.83% September-October, and up 4.59% from last to this October, compared to a 0.28% month-over-month decline and a 0.94% year-over-year rise in September.
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