A new study from WARC finds that global ad spend is poised to grow 10.7% this year to $1.08 trillion. WARC says that’s the strongest growth rate in six years and the largest absolute rise on record, excluding the 27.9% year-over-year post-COVID recovery of 2021.
The latest, newly released November outlook represents a modest upgrade of one-fifth of a percentage point since WARC’s August global forecast.
The ad spend growth is expected to continue into 2025 (+7.6%) and 2026 (7%), which WARC says will result in a global ad market valued at $1.24 trillion. WARC says global ad investment more than doubled in the past decade. The projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide.
“While the headline growth rate is mostly being driven by online media, a good year for TV has also made a notable contribution,” WARC says. “Linear TV spend is expected to end the year 1.9% higher, at $153.6 billion, following two years of decline. TV has been boosted by political advertising — particularly in the U.S. — during the fourth quarter and both the Paris Olympics and the Euro 2024 football tournament in the third. Linear TV now accounts for just 14.3% of global advertising spend, however, down from a peak of 41.3% in 2013.”
Pure play internet, including ad revenue from online-only businesses (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, etc.) is set to grow 14.1% to $741.4 billion. That represents 68.8% of all advertising spend, WARC says.
Globally, advertisers will spend $299.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 — with more than half spent during the holiday season. According to the research, which was authored by James McDonald, WARC’s Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting, that represents an increase of 10.2% vs. a year ago.
“The fourth quarter is crucial for retailers, typically accounting for over 30% of annual ad spend within the sector, which represents the intense battle for consumer salience and share of wallet each year,” the report says. “Retailers will spend $45.6 billion on advertising during Q4 2024, up 5% compared to last year. TV is set to attract 15.9% of this spend, at $6.8 billion, with nearing a quarter (23.3%) of this — $1.6 billion — spent on ads delivered via connected TVs (CTV) so as to leverage the additional targeting capabilities these devices can afford advertisers.”
Retail media ad spending is poised to peak in Q4, WARC says, as brands attempt to reach potential shoppers near the point of purchase. Globally, retail media spend is expected to rise 16.4% in Q4 to a new high of $46.2 billion. Amazon is expected to dominate that ad spending, with a net of $16.9 billion. That’s up 18% from the prior year.
In terms of sectors, technology and electronics is expected to see the most spending in online retail media in Q4 — with an anticipated total of $7.2 billion, up 18.7% from last year, or more than triple what the sector spends on TV.
Other surging segments in the retail media space: alcoholic drinks (+13.5% to $3.9 billion), cosmetics (+13.8% to $5.2 billion), food (+19.4% to $5.4 billion) and soft drinks (+22% to $4.5 billion). Overall, WARC says, retail media ad spend is expected to hit $154.8 billion in 2024, with a 14.8% rise expected in 2025 and a 13.5% increase in 2026. By that time, WARC says, that market would be worth $201.6 billion.