When Nielsen releases its U.S. radio listening data for the January 2025 PPM survey period, two weeks from now — the first data reflecting its rule change giving stations credit for a quarter-hour of listening when a panelist listens for at least three minutes during that quarter-hour, down from the previous five minutes — how different will those numbers be from the five-minute era?
For a possible indicator of what’s to come in America, Coleman Insights President Warren Kurtzman suggests looking at audience data from Canada, where estimates from the Canadian measurement company Numeris, using Nielsen’s PPM technology, are based on average minute vs. quarter-hour. “Tapping knowledge from our neighbors to the north could serve you well,” Kurtzman says in Coleman’s blog.
With the help of Canadian broadcasting company Stingray Radio’s Director of Research and Insights Cara Golden, Coleman’s analysis — comparing behavior during peak listening quarter-hours in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton among those listening for five versus three minutes — finds three notable trends: more reported listening overall, audience gains across all formats, and larger increases for cume-dependent stations vs. those with higher time spent listening.
While the analysis of three-minute listening behavior found total hours listened to radio per week increased just 6%, cume levels saw an 18% lift, which is notable as Nielsen expects an influx of cume listening not previously captured by the five-minute rule, which will drive the numbers higher. “It’s safe to say that no matter what, reported radio listening levels will increase significantly,” Kurtzman says.
While the study found that stations in 11 major format groups available in Canada saw AQH audience gains, with increases ranging from 3% to 14%, the largest increases were for formats attracting larger cume — such as adult contemporary, CHR, and rock — while sports, news/talk and country showed the smallest increases, and hot AC, news, alternative, classic hits, and classic rock fell in the middle. It’s important to note that the analysis did not include those formats not widely available in Canada while more prevalent in the US, such as formats focused on Black or Hispanic audiences.
“While every station can expect increases in their AQH audiences when Nielsen Audio implements the ‘three-minute rule,’ some will benefit more than others,” Kurtzman says. “This will affect the AQH share estimates that programmers often focus on and may push high cume/low TSL stations to the top of the rankers in many markets.”
Kurtzman also notes that the intent of the analysis was not to predict the outcome of Nielsen’s change, which is part of an effort to align measurement of radio audiences and digital advertising platforms, but to simply raise possibilities worth examining when Nielsen releases its January data. “There are other differences between the Canadian and American radio markets,” he adds, “including significantly different ethnic makeups, and the presence of fewer stations in radio markets in Canada versus those in the States.”