The 2025 U.S. advertising market won’t live up to what 2024 delivered, but it is still expected to rise.
According to S&P Global Ratings, ad spending will climb 4.5% this year. That’s down from 2024’s 9.7% growth rate, but still nothing to scoff at. Digital growth, which will likely moderate this year, will still drive results after a strong expansion in 2024. Digital ad spending is expected to increase 9.1% in 2025 after rising an estimated 13.8% last year.
“We forecast U.S. digital advertising revenue will increase by 9.1% in 2025, modestly slower than our 2024 estimate for a 13.8% expansion, reflecting a return to more normal rates of growth following an acceleration in 2024,” S&P says. “Digital video and retail media networks will be the fastest expanding subsegments because they are both benefitting from the continued shift to online shopping, digital video consumption, and connected TV, as well as the better demographic targeting provided by video on demand viewing.”
Meanwhile, S&P says consumer spending growth remains resilient and will be bolstered by recent upward revisions of its forecasts for personal income and the savings rate. “We project consumer spending will expand by 2.3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, which is modestly ahead of our U.S. GDP forecast,” S&P says.
S&P says the endurance of consumer spending is a key driving force in the overall advertising market, despite “perceived fears about the U.S. economy, the emergence of cross-border advertisers (in particular those based in China who have spent lavishly in the U.S. and Europe), and the entrance of new e-commerce advertisers.”