Guideline: Advertisers Stay The Course In Q2 While Navigating Uncertain Economy.

The media intelligence firm Guideline says U.S. ad spending is still growing in the second quarter, with a projected 1.8% year-over-year increase for April and May, reflecting how marketers are adapting to macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff pressures with more targeted, results-driven strategies.

While growth pace is “noticeably cooling” from 2024, according to Guideline, the change reflects “heightened caution due to macroeconomic headwinds,” although several bright spots are emerging. Digital media continues to perform well, up 9% year-over-year, as advertisers gravitate toward platforms that offer shorter lead times, and rapid feedback on performance.

The estimates are based on forward bookings data, which provide an early glimpse into advertiser commitments, revealing how marketers are adapting strategies amid ongoing economic uncertainty. It highlights how marketers are refining their spend — not retreating — by focusing on high-performing categories.

Guideline sees “notable resilience” in financial services with ads pacing up 15% while tariffs have caused more uncertainty in the auto market than most others, and that is reflected in ad spending. The auto sector remains a soft spot, with ad spending pacing down 9% due to the tariff uncertainty, but Guideline notes that the overall landscape still reflects growth and strategic evolution, not decline.

Traditional media channels are tracking 11% lower. Much of that is driven by big drops in local TV spending, which are pacing down 24% from a year ago when political ads were helping to fill inventory.

Retail media networks are leading the growth among media sub-types, up 18% year-to-year, which Guideline says is being driven by its clear connection to consumer purchase behavior. DoorDash, Uber, Reddit and Apple are the fastest-growing publishers, which it says reflects advertiser demand for platforms that deliver immediate and measurable impact.

Guideline’s data follows comments made in the past two weeks by the executives at three of the major advertising conglomerates — Omnicom, Publicis and Havas — who each said that while clients are being cautious, they haven’t seen any pullback in spending due to economic uncertainty.

John Wren, the CEO of Omnicom Group — parent to media agencies like OMD and PHD — said client ad spending “remains strong” as marketers stick with their 2025 plans for now. And Publicis Media CEO Arthur Sadoun, whose media shops include Starcom, Zenith and Digitas, said the “tough environment has not materialized in our numbers.”

Havas CFO/COO François Laroze said most clients are in a watch-and-wait mode. “We have not suffered any budget freeze or budget cuts for our main clients, at least for the time being, he said during an earnings call.

Analysts at Citi said last week that consumer spending will be key to how advertising trends develop. It said in a research note that consumer spending could decline by roughly 3%, and that could cut ad spending by 1.9%.

Separately, MoffettNathanson said in a report to clients that if economic growth slows to 3% in 2025 and advertising intensity falls, the firm estimates about $45 billion could be lost in U.S. ad spend vs. current forecasts.

How ad trends look in radio will become clearer during the next two weeks as radio companies begin reporting quarterly earnings and offering their outlook for the remainder of this year.