Podcasting will become the largest ad revenue growth driver for the U.S. streaming audio business this year, according to analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence. In a report previewing the year’s biggest media trends, it says improvements in analytics and marketing tools as well as the integration of artificial intelligence are the catalysts behind growing podcast ad revenue.
S&P’s Kagan forecast is more subdued than some others, however. It believes the podcast industry will not top $2 billion in revenue until 2032. But it says by 2034 it expects podcasting to account for 15.9% of total U.S. online ad revenue, up from an estimated 5.7% in 2024.
“While Kagan sees podcasting as undergoing exceptional growth, our projections might be considered modest among the digital streaming industry,” the report says. “We see improved monetization within the podcast segment, driven by an increase in advertiser interest, improvements in ad insertions, and ad platforms that increase efficiency and targeting. Notably, however, we also have seen the industry consolidate after years of heavy investment.” Kagan says projected growth is also dependent on continued trust and reliability of the format in the years to come.
The growth of podcasting will come at a good time for the broadcast industry. Kagan forecasts U.S. broadcast station industry total ad revenue to decline 9.3% to $32.83 in 2025, primarily since it is a non-election and non-Olympic year. It projects the radio ad market will decline 3.3% to $10.86 billion in 2025, excluding network and off-air revenue. The bright spot will be digital ad growth. Kagan projects radio’s digital ad sales will grow an average 5.6% in each of the next five years.
Among the other media trends predicted by Kagan are a continuation of consumers cutting the cord and transitioning from traditional pay TV networks to streaming platforms. It also sees shifting dynamics in sports media rights dealmaking, as well as a continued box office recovery.
“2025 could prove to be a pivotal year for the global media landscape as more sports programming and advertising dollars flow towards streaming services,” says Seth Shafer, Senior Research Analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Intense competition could see a rise in mergers and deal-making, especially in the U.S., where media firms are firmly focused on profitability and deregulation could be on the rise.”