Book early and “look for alternatives to TV” is the advice Harmelin Media is giving its clients as the final weeks of the 2024 election cycle are upon us. The advertising agency is also telling clients to “be flexible on pre-emptions” and “expect cost inflation” as they navigate a marketplace crowded with political ads.
“The volume of political advertising will impact virtually all marketers’ plans in 2024,” says Harmelin. “Because most political ads are must run and because issue ads command such a high price premium, there will be less inventory available for other advertisers,” it tells clients in a update.
The agency also says it is not just the volume of the ads, but their tone, that some clients may want to consider alternative buying strategies — or remaining on the sidelines until after Election Day.
“The vicious nature of our elections presents a significant distraction for voters and consumers — it will be hard to divert attention away from politics, making it more challenging for marketers to win share of mind.”
Harmelin says 2024 is living up to its expectations as a record year in political spending. It points to Kantar estimates that say spending is likely to reach $11 billion, which would top both the 2020 presidential and 2022 midterm election cycles. It adds that recent estimates suggest political ad spending could even reach $12 billion.
Those estimates include a projection by Kantar that radio will receive $300 million in political ad buys this cycle, up 11% from the $270 million it received during the 2022 midterms. Kantar says broadcast TV will get the most with about $5 billion in spending, which is a big reason for the sellout conditions that traditional advertisers will face during the next several weeks.
Harmelin says it is not just the swing states in the Presidential election where ad buyers will face limited avails. It says U.S. Senate races in nine states, including Arizona, Ohio, Montana, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Texas could also cause some headaches. There are also a handful of gubernatorial races with states including Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Vermont set to elect governors next month.
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